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เสถียรภาพทางการเมือง คุณภาพของประชากรและระบบการปกครองกับอนาคตของประเทศไทย

Academy of Moral and Political Sciencesby Academy of Moral and Political Sciences

ศ.เกริกเกียรติ พิพัฒน์เสรีธรรม
ราชบัณฑิต

อนาคตของประเทศไทยในเรื่องความเป็นอยู่ของประชาชน ความปลอดภัยในชีวิตและทรัพย์สิน สิทธิเสรีภาพ ความยั่งยืนจะเป็นได้อย่างไร ขึ้นอยู่กับการกระทำและความรับผิดชอบของประชาชนทุกคนโดยเฉพาะรัฐบาล นักการเมือง และผู้นำทุกระดับในสังคมที่มีอำนาจในการพัฒนาเปลี่ยนแปลงทางการเมือง เศรษฐกิจ และสังคมให้เกิดความสำเร็จหรือล้มเหลวใน ๕ ประเด็นคือ เสถียรภาพทางการเมือง คุณภาพของประชากร ระบบการศึกษา การดูแลและการตรวจสอบของสังคมโดยมีหลักนิติธรรมกำกับการทำงาน ซึ่งทุกคนจะต้องร่วมรับผิดชอบในการทำงานเพื่อเขียนประวัติศาสตร์ของประเทศไทย

    เมื่อพิจารณาถึงประวัติศาสตร์การพัฒนาเปลี่ยนแปลงของประเทศไทย ตั้งแต่สมัยรัชกาลที่ ๕ จนถึง พ.ศ. ๒๕๕๗ อาจจะแบ่งตามช่วงระยะเวลาได้ ๔ ช่วงดังนี้ คือ การเริ่มต้น การชะลอตัวหยุดชะงัก ความล้มเหลวและการฟื้นฟู

  1. การเริ่มต้นปฏิรูปเปลี่ยนแปลงประเทศ พ.ศ. ๒๔๑๑-๒๔๕๓ รวมเวลา ๔๒ ปี
    รัชกาลที่ ๕ ได้พัฒนาประเทศต่อจากรัชกาลที่ ๔ ด้วยการเน้นยุทธศาสตร์ที่สำคัญ ๓ เรื่องคือ การปฏิรูประบบการปกครอง การพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจ และการปฏิรูปคุณภาพของคน นับเป็นจุดเริ่มต้นของการพัฒนาเปลี่ยนแปลงที่ดี

    ๒.  การปฏิรูปประเทศได้ชะลอตัวหรือหยุดชะงักลงในรัชกาลที่ ๖ จนถึงการรัฐประหารเมื่อ พ.ศ. ๒๔๙๐ รวมเวลา ๗๙ ปี
เกิดการขัดแย้งและแย่งชิงอำนาจกันทางการเมืองระหว่างกลุ่มทหารกับพลเรือนต่อเนื่องมาจน ใน พ.ศ. ๒๔๙๐ กลุ่มทหารกลุ่มหนึ่งได้ทำรัฐประหารยึดอำนาจปกครองประเทศอยู่เป็นระยะเวลายาวนานเกือบ ๓๐ ปี คือ พ.ศ. ๒๔๙๐ ถึง ๒๕๑๖  ซึ่งถือเป็นจุดเปลี่ยนที่สำคัญของการพัฒนาเปลี่ยนแปลงการเมือง เศรษฐกิจ สังคม ที่กระทบชีวิตความเป็นอยู่ของประชาชนเป็นเวลายาวนานถึงปัจจุบัน

    ๓.  ความล้มเหลวของเผด็จการทหารและการเลือกตั้งแบบประชาธิปไตย ธุรกิจการเมืองตั้งแต่ พ.ศ. ๒๔๙๐ ถึง ๒๕๕๗ รวมเวลา ๖๗ ปี แบ่งอธิบายใน ๔ ด้านดังนี้

  • ด้านเสถียรภาพทางการเมือง
    คณะทหารได้อยู่ในอำนาจติดต่อกันยาวนานประมาณ ๔๐ ปี แต่ไม่สามารถพัฒนาประเทศให้เจริญก้าวหน้าและประชาชนอยู่ดีกินดีได้ ยกเว้นในช่วงคณะทหารสมัยรัฐบาล พลเอก เปรม  ติณสูลานนท์  ได้แก้ปัญหาวิกฤตการณ์ทางการเมือง เศรษฐกิจและสังคมได้ดี เป็นเวลาประมาณ ๑๐ ปี คือช่วง พ.ศ. ๒๕๒๐-๒๕๓๐
  • ด้านการพัฒนาความเจริญเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจ
    การพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจของประเทศได้เปลี่ยนทิศทางด้วยการมีแผนการพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจแห่งชาติ ส่งเสริมบทบาทของภาคเอกชน ตามแนวคิดเศรษฐกิจทุนนิยม ราว พ.ศ. ๒๕๐๑ เป็นต้นมา
    แผนพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจแห่งชาติและนโยบายส่งเสริมการลงทุนได้ทำให้เศรษฐกิจของประเทศไทยเจริญเติบโตอย่างรวดเร็ว แต่ก็ได้ก่อให้เกิดปัญหาความไม่เป็นธรรมและความเหลื่อมล้ำทางเศรษฐกิจอย่างมากในเวลาปัจจุบัน เพราะในแผนพัฒนาเศรษฐกิจไม่มีแผนหรือมาตรการกระจายรายได้ที่เป็นธรรมและลดความเหลื่อมล้ำทางเศรษฐกิจของสังคม ซึ่งได้เริ่มต้นตั้งแต่สมัย จอมพล สฤษดิ์  ธนะรัชต์  เป็นต้นมา
  • ด้านคุณภาพของคนและระบบของสังคม
    นับตั้งแต่ยุคเผด็จการ พ.ศ. ๒๔๙๐ และยุคประชาธิปไตยแบบการเลือกตั้งธุรกิจการเมือง ตั้งแต่ พ.ศ. ๒๕๓๐ เป็นต้นมา รวมเวลา ๖๗ ปี ได้ละเลยการพัฒนาคุณภาพของคนและระบบการทำงานของสังคมเป็นระยะเวลายาวนาน โดยเริ่มตั้งแต่ พ.ศ. ๒๔๙๐ ได้ละเลยการพัฒนาภาคการเกษตร และชีวิตความเป็นอยู่ของคนส่วนใหญ่ของประเทศ ที่ดินป่าไม้ได้ถูกบุกรุกไปมากกว่า ๑๑๐ ล้านไร่ ได้เกิดปัญหาการถือครองที่ดินที่ไม่เป็นธรรมในสังคมจนถึงปัจจุบัน
    ต่อมารัฐธรรมนูญฉบับ พ.ศ. ๒๕๔๐ มีช่องทางที่ก่อให้เกิดการผูกขาดทางการเมืองของธุรกิจการเมืองหรือธนาธิปไตย เนื่องจากความไม่พร้อมของประชาชนที่มีสิทธิออกเสียงเลือกตั้ง และรัฐบาลไม่ได้มีการแก้ปัญหาพื้นฐานของประเทศ แต่กลับใช้อำนาจเพื่อผลประโยชน์ของตนเองและพวกพ้องที่เป็นผลเสียต่อประเทศ
  • ด้านการฟื้นฟูความสงบและการพัฒนาประเทศกับอนาคตของประเทศไทยเริ่มตั้งแต่ พ.ศ. ๒๕๕๗ จึงถึงปัจจุบัน
    รัฐบาลของพลเอก ประยุทธ์  จันทร์โอชา มีความมุ่งมั่นทางการเมืองและวิสัยทัศน์ที่จะพัฒนาประเทศไทยให้เป็นประเทศที่พัฒนาแล้ว ด้วยการกำหนดยุทธศาสตร์ชาติ ๒๐ ปี พ.ศ. ๒๕๕๙-๒๕๗๙ เพื่อให้ประชาชนมีความอยู่ดีกินดีในระดับเดียวกันกับประเทศที่พัฒนาแล้ว ถ้าพิจารณาจากฐานรายได้ของประเทศไทยในปี พ.ศ. ๒๕๖๐ เศรษฐกิจของประเทศไทยจะต้องเจริญเติบโตเฉลี่ยร้อยละ ๕ ถึง ๖ ต่อปี แต่ความเจริญเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจของประเทศใน พ.ศ. ๒๕๖๒ ที่คาดว่าจะโตเพียงประมาณร้อยละ ๒.๖ เท่านั้น เป้าหมายที่ได้กำหนดไว้ในแผนยุทธศาสตร์ ๒๐ คงเป็นได้ยากหรือเป็นไปไม่ได้เลย
    อย่างไรก็ตาม  รัฐบาลของพลเอก ประยุทธ์  จันทร์โอชา ได้เดินตามแนวทางของพลเอก เปรม  ติณสูลานนท์  คือรักษาความสงบและเสถียรภาพทางการเมือง ในขณะเดียวกันก็ได้พัฒนาเศรษฐกิจให้เจริญเติบโตในอัตราที่สูงด้วยการลงทุนโครงสร้างพื้นฐานทางเศรษฐกิจต่าง ๆ เชื่อมต่อการพัฒนาระหว่างประเทศอาจทำให้เศรษฐกิจเติบโตในอัตราที่สูง และประชาชนมีชีวิตความเป็นอยู่ที่ดีขึ้น ถ้ามองในแง่ที่ดีแล้วอาจจะกล่าวได้ว่า แม้ว่าจะไม่สามารถบรรลุเป้าหมายยุทธศาสตร์ชาติ ๒๐ ปี แต่ก็จะช่วยให้ชีวิตความเป็นอยู่ของประชาชนดีขึ้น

Academy of Moral and Political Sciences

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  733. Next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn’t fail me just as much as this particular one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read through, however I genuinely thought you would have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something you could possibly fix if you weren’t too busy searching for attention.

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  745. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a colleague who had been doing a little homework on this. And he in fact ordered me dinner due to the fact that I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to talk about this matter here on your website.

  746. I really love your website.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you develop this amazing site yourself? Please reply back as Iím hoping to create my very own site and want to learn where you got this from or exactly what the theme is named. Appreciate it!

  747. Hello there! This blog post couldnít be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He always kept preaching about this. I’ll forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a very good read. Thanks for sharing!

  749. I blog frequently and I seriously thank you for your content. Your article has really peaked my interest. I am going to take a note of your website and keep checking for new details about once a week. I opted in for your RSS feed as well.

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  760. Right here is the perfect blog for anyone who wishes to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a topic that’s been written about for years. Great stuff, just wonderful!

  761. Hi, I do believe your site could possibly be having web browser compatibility problems. When I look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in IE, it has some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, excellent website!

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  769. I’m very happy to uncover this web site. I wanted to thank you for your time for this particularly fantastic read!! I definitely appreciated every little bit of it and I have you book marked to look at new things on your website.

  770. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been conducting a little homework on this. And he actually bought me dinner due to the fact that I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this matter here on your site.

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  791. Hello there, I do believe your site may be having internet browser compatibility issues. When I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in IE, it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Besides that, fantastic blog!

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  793. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a friend who had been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me lunch simply because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to discuss this issue here on your site.

  794. When I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the exact same comment. Is there a way you are able to remove me from that service? Many thanks!

  801. I would like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this site. I really hope to view the same high-grade blog posts from you later on as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own, personal site now 😉

  804. May I just say what a relief to discover a person that genuinely understands what they’re discussing over the internet. You certainly understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people have to read this and understand this side of your story. I can’t believe you are not more popular because you definitely have the gift.

  805. You’re so awesome! I do not think I’ve truly read a single thing like this before. So great to discover somebody with some unique thoughts on this topic. Really.. thanks for starting this up. This site is something that is required on the internet, someone with a bit of originality!

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  812. When I originally commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I recieve four emails with the same comment. There has to be a way you can remove me from that service? Kudos.

  815. Hello there, I believe your blog could possibly be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your website in Safari, it looks fine however, when opening in I.E., it has some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Apart from that, fantastic site!

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